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    歡迎光臨本站?新萬博體育|皇家馬德里贊助商|官網

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    物聯網燃新萬博體育氣表龍頭業績自帶光環

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      2018年業績略超市場預期,未來最大看點是和華為深度合作物聯網,率先占領NB-IoT物聯網燃氣表先發優勢,另外并購的天信儀表后在成本、市場各方面形成很好的協同性,物聯網炒作的絕佳標的。

      2019年1月15日,金卡智能發布2018年業績預告,預計全年凈利潤4.53億-5.57億,同比增長30%-59.9%。

      1、現在貢獻大頭收入的燃氣表主要是IC和無線兩類,IC逐漸淘汰,而物聯網智能燃氣表持續擴大,是公司利潤增長的主要驅動因素之一。

      2、子公司天信儀表遷入新廠房,通過升級,氣體流量計效率和產能大幅提升,集團化采購降低了生產成本,氣體流量計產品銷售收入和利潤均取得較好增長。新萬博體育

      3、公司云服務業務進一步拓展到水務市場,開辟了新的公用事業細分應用新領域。

      4、通過了多個海外市場的產品型式評價認證并取得訂單,積極參加海外展會與行業交流,不斷提升品牌知名度,為后續的海外業務增長奠定了商務基礎和技術基礎。

      公司前三季度凈利潤3.46億,同比增長96%,由此推算Q4凈利潤介于1.07億-2.11億之間,全年業績略超市場預期。當前76億的市值,5億多的凈利潤,PE才15倍,如果業績增長具備持續性,疊加物聯網題材,是炒作的絕佳標的了,本文主要結合業績預告,辯證簡要分析。

      公司主營民用燃氣表、工商業流量計、及相關軟件系統和服務平臺產品。在家用智能燃氣表領域市占率25%左右,2G物聯網燃氣表市占率第一,新一代NB-IoT智能物聯網燃氣表市占率80%-90%,工業燃氣30%,屬于智能燃氣表和工業流量計領域的絕對龍頭。

      我國是多煤少氣的國家,長期是煤炭作為能源主導,2017年占一次能源的60%,但煤炭污染嚴重,占比緩慢下降,天然氣清潔高效,近十年國家都在努力提高天然氣在能源消耗中的比重,國家《能源發展戰略行動計劃(2014-2020年)》中提出,到2020年,天然氣在一次能源消費中的比重將提高到10%以上。

      全世界的天然氣占比是23%,我國2017年天然氣表觀消費量是2399億立方米,一次能源比重為6.9%,較前一年提高了1%,2018年估計在2800億m³,進一步提升到8%,離2020年10%的目標還有2個點差距,可以確定2019-2020年我國天然氣消費依然會有每年十幾個點的高速增長。那么近水樓臺先得月,天然氣燃氣表毫無疑問將會從中受益。

      2017年我國一次能源結構:我國——煤炭60%,石油19%,天然氣7%,其他14%

      金卡2018年上半年基本是氣體流量計和燃氣表各占一半(如下圖),前者留作后文點評,先說燃氣表這塊。

      燃氣表發展經歷了幾個階段:普通機械式燃氣表→模式燃氣表→IC卡智能燃氣表→物聯網智能燃氣表(分為2G物聯網和NB-IoT燃氣表)。現階段存量燃氣表以IC卡表為主,增量上物聯網燃氣表則在2017年已經實現反超。

      IC卡表,曾經是金卡占比最高的業務,最高60%,現在逐年下降,淘汰趨勢,2018H1已下降到16.8%,半年還有幾千萬的收入;無線%,銷售額從前幾年的幾千萬增長到2018H1的2個多億,正處于高速增長階段,趨勢還將延續,不夠無線最終會被NB-IoT物聯網表所取代。

      市場需求:市場需求有壽命到期的換代需求,也有技術升級的換代需求,還有海外滲透市場前景。

      壽命到期:一般燃氣表使用壽命為6-10年,我國目前有1億臺燃氣表在運行,未來兩年壽命將迎來到期高峰。

      技術升級:這1億只中智能表5000萬,非智能5000萬,未來非智能的必然換智能,甚至智能的換最新一代智能,都將產生廣闊市場。未來物聯網燃氣表將主要基于NB-IoT技術,該表具有便捷、階梯氣價、實時調價、監控、報警等功能,能夠降低燃氣公司運營成本、人工成本等,而燃氣公司集中度較高,大規模推廣具有很大優勢。

      在物聯網的低功率廣域網技術上,NB-loT標準已成共識,金卡智能提前選準了這一技術方向,至少領先對手2年,2017年市占率80%-90%。

      云平臺同時獲得華為技術Validated認證,NB-IoT產品覆蓋廣度進一步提升。金卡智能已在深圳、佛山、江蘇、新疆和浙江開展 NB-IoT 物聯網燃氣表的合作,未來隨著模塊價格下降到50以內,成本將能和2G物聯網表持平。

      收購天信儀表100%股權:2016年11月并表,股權7.3億+現金6.9億,共計14.2億收購,業績承諾2016-2018年合計實現凈利潤不少于3億。

      天信儀表主要是工業燃氣計量儀表,新萬博體育!且市占率No.1,這一并購使公司從主營IC/無線智能燃氣表及系統軟件、燃氣銷售等業務,進一步拓展至工業燃氣計量儀器儀表市場領域。這是圍繞主業延伸,非常精準的一次布局,目前也是占比第一大營收板塊,2018年上半年占比43%,和燃氣表相當,貢獻利潤的56.7%。

      要點:工業燃氣計量儀表下游面對工業領域,燃氣公司對價格不敏感,對性能穩定性要求更高,行業是天信儀表和蒼南儀表廠雙寡頭格局,毛利率穩定在60%,并購后核心零部件進口替代ing,毛利率有望進一步提升。天信儀表受益于煤改氣,但是主要是工業燃氣,故而和迪森股份有本質區別。

      北京銀證100%股權:2016年5月,9000萬收購,主營天然氣應用管理軟件服務商,客服計費、計量采集、營業收費、客戶服務、管網建設運行等。華思科51%股權:2016年5月,2000萬收購,核心業務是ESLink,即SaaS易聯云服務平臺。

      點評:通過收購北方銀證和易聯云,金卡智能將旗下智能燃氣表、燃氣監控軟件系統、燃氣云應用等整合起來,形成了智能燃氣表完整生態系統,成為國內唯一的智能燃氣表整體解決方案提供商。

      公司屬于既有體能又有身材的馬拉松選手,惹人眼球,目前最主要的兩塊業務——智能燃氣表和工業流量計并購后達成協同,這和一般的收購有區別,兩者毛利高、收入增速不低,這是體能,未來的新一代物聯網燃氣表滲透,這是身材。

      目前PE僅為15倍估值,合理估值2019年20倍(市場預期6億凈利潤,估計不止),今日(2019.1.15)股價放量突破半年線,正式走出下降通道,第一壓力位19.2元。

      ①物聯網炒作升溫,物聯網是一個很發散的行業,金卡智能這種聚焦的標的更加難得。

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